Is Twitter a Ponzi scheme?

By jeremiebertrand

I recently came across a presentation on Slideshare that —even if very simplistic— formalized something I have been thinking about for a few weeks: could Twitter be a kind of unintentional, original and refined Ponzi scheme in the domain of marketing? A giant pyramid that will topple if more bricks aren’t added every day?

Disclaimer: We love Twitter
We use it every day. We get a lot of interesting information from it, we have many followers, we follow many people, we made some interesting contacts on it, but…

But…Twitter isn’t that good

Sure, Twitter is a good product.  The application interface is accessible and wide open. It’s a real-time social bookmarking tool that’s original in terms of virality and network recommendation. This stream fits with some people’s needs to organize content. But honestly, it’s not that good. Following too many people (something that we, @hypios, admittedly do, as we follow pretty much everyone who follows us) makes the stream change so quickly that it’s impossible to really ‘follow.’ Follow fewer people, though, and it gets boring; you’ll just see the same excessive twitterers on your network.

Then there’s the functionality. I won’t go too far into that, but  it’s maddening that there’s no ’select all and delete’ option for the 200 daily automated direct messages you’ll get (which are not at all distinguished, by the way, from the real ones).  You have to click on every single one of them. “Delete all” a feature that you have with every simple email account. I’ll stop here, but to reiterate, it’s not that good.

But then why is everyone talking about it?

One billion search results in Google: five times more than “Obama.” Impressive, right? But let’s have a closer look at these results. The first page: Twitter.com, About page, Wikipedia article, Crunchable profile… But when you go deeper into the results, you find that at least one out of every two results is a ‘how to’: how to get more followers, how to make a profit from Twitter; or a who’s who: who has more followers, who is more popular? This only confirms the impression you get when reading tech news about Twitter: a huge part of the media coverage is about Twitter’s popularity, marketing and social capital. Searchable interest in Twitter is predominantly about marketing!

Telling the world what you’re having for lunch might be amusing for a while. But in general, Facebook is better for that—you choose your friends, and you have more control over comments and interactions.  Most active Twitter users do care about what they say. But they care more about the world (their followers) caring about what they say.

Twitter as a marketing tool is extremely advanced because it’s distributed and partially automatized (via applications). I sometimes envision of a sort of endtime’ scenario: a point where Twitter would become a place where machines tweet and retweet to other machines, where machines welcome other machines by direct messages, where there is only occasionally (if any) human attention to reprogram the way in which the machines interact and alter the content the machines endlessly send to each other.

What’s a Ponzi scheme?

Roughly: an investment scheme where the first investors get dividends, that is, they are paid back for their investment, directly from the capital of new investors. So a Ponzi scheme investment fund never generates any real revenue: it merely redistrbutes investments. To make sure that early investors have the feeling of earning money with their investment, there must always be new investors and more new investors than old ones: it’s a pyramid. Bernard Madoff recently became infamous through applying this scheme for many years until his pyramid collapsed, when too many investors wanted to have their money back.

Attention is Twitter’s capital

On a certain level of Twitter activity (and probably the one where most traffic happens), Twitter works in just this way. The capital used on Twitter is not money, but the attention of new users. Marketeers go crazy about Twitter because, especially on the internet, companies tend to associate attention—probably correctly—with potential revenue. If you pay attention to a link by clicking on it, you might also buy the product it’s promoting.

Of course, Twitter users are not investing real money, or at least, they’re not paying Twitter directly. (Even if Twitter itself still hasn’t earned a single dollar, the ecosystem around it is making money). The Securities and Exchange Commission probably won’t need to investigate Twitter’s offices after reading this post. And even if it consumes some time, and time is money, using an application to tweet doesn’t take that much time.

 

But Twitter is not “free,” at least from a macro point of view: the usual things sold by Twitter marketing software, “reach thousands of new customers for free” glosses over the fact that, even though Twitter lets users broadcast a message to their followers, their followers aren’t necessarily listening. And listening, in the Twitter marketing system, is an investment: an investment where dividends are not paid to the investor, but to the marketers, the people you listen to. It starts to resemble a Ponzi scheme. When dividends are paid with the money of other investors, we’re getting close to Madoff’s territory. Just…there is no “puppet-master”, like Madoff, steering investors towards the riff, like Lemmings. Twitter as a marketing device is just something that naturally evolved towards becoming a Ponzy.

The Twitter user cycle

You start as a listener. Then you become a broker (you re-tweet) and occasional poster (you tweet). You get more followers, you follow more people. Eventually, you follow so many people that you can’t listen anymore, and you end up only transmitting and not receiving. Sooner or later, this happens to everyone:
The problem with this scheme is that “listeners,” i.e., “second rank investors,” want their money back at some point. Maybe they’ll continue to listen, but maybe not.  Above all, they’ll start to speak, to produce content that they hope someone will listen to and re-tweet. But if everyone starts speaking, who’s listening? As many people only speak, even if others do both speak and listen (though this is rare in the marketing ecosystem), the quantity of listening decreases in relation to the quantity of speaking. In other words, the return on investment decreases! To avoid the whole structure’s collapse, you need a permanent flow of new users, or, more precisely, new listeners, to pay dividends to the old ones through their attention—just like in a Ponzi scheme where you need more and more investors.
In this view, here is what Twitter’s history looks like: the first users (journalists!) joined, bringing content to Twitter and some attention to each other (social capital). Tired of being alone, they spread the word to newspapers and were rewarded in dividend by the attention of the new users they brought in. These users listened for a while, then started to produce their own content, seeking attention. The user base started growing virally and is still expanding today. Currently, the dividends can be paid and everything is fine. But if growth slows down, investors won’t be paid back, and investment will decrease. As users’ investments are used to pay others’ dividends, the global “interest rate” of Twitter decreases; investment decreases until nobody listens anymore, leaving an apocalyptic field where machines roam. And maybe, just maybe, those smaller communities who really use Twitter as a content sharing and bookmarking tool will remain, and will actually talk and listen and the same time (like on, say, Facebook).So what?Well, it’s just Twitter, after all. I simply believe that a very important part of Twitter traffic, media coverage, and, of course, financial valuation (seriously: one billion?) is bound to an unsustainable Ponzi scheme model on the attention level (and not in monetary terms). But if the Twitter founders want to make some money, they should try to do it soon, before the Machine Age arrives. Machines don’t pay.

 

P.S. This post was intended to be somewhat provocative and ironic. Indeed, it only applies to a certain use of Twitter, its use for marketing. There might be quite some ways to avoid the collapse: if Twitter changes its strategy, better applications are developed or, well, if Twitter generates some income. And well, maybe we wouldn’t care too much if Twitter turned out not to be such a good marketing tool after all and if the Twitter-as-marketing-tool-pyramid collapsed. What do you think?

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6 Responses to “Is Twitter a Ponzi scheme?”

  1. Toni Anicic Says:

    Very interesting point of view. As the time passes by I as well started noticing the similarity of Twitter with a ponzi scheme. I think they can avoid the faith of collapsing pyramid if they manage to filter out the make money free accounts and other spammers. Also they need to disable the ability to auto follow people via Twitter API. This would make a life of a non-marketing user on Twitter much more enjoyable ant such a suer would probably stick much longer.

  2. Twitter_Tips Says:

    Ilya Prigogine explained how complex systems can naturally evolve where entropy seems to hold sway. It often seems counter-intuitive, but it’s very common.

    It’s the ever-growing uses of Twitter that hold the key for it’s (non-Ponzi) utilization and future growth, beyond simple broadcasting.

  3. Twitter_Tips Says:

    See for example the spreadsheet of people explaining how they harness the power of Twitter:
    http://twitter.com/Twitter_Tips/status/5917004499

  4. jeremiebertrand Says:

    @Toni: I think you’re right about the API (auto-follow), it’s a very important aspect of this automated ponzi-scheme.

    @Twitter_Tips: there’s already a lot of “non-ponzi” utilisation of twitter, but if the ponzi part asks for permanent growth,I don’t think its’ sustainable..

  5. Ron C. de Weijze Says:

    Society in general, and Twitter in particular, is one giant Ponzi scheme (Madoff knew this better than anyone), so Twitter isn’t special in that sense. Favoritism, nepotism, cronyism: to neutralize it we only need to be honest about what we confirm or reject – and when we confirm, we need it to be as independent as possible. Even democracy allows confirmation to be dependent, for example when people are threatened to be cast out if they don’t vote for x. Just like kids at school not wearing the ‘correct’ sports shoes. And political correctness – let’s not even go there.

  6. Filipe Pinto Says:

    I liked this article very much. I truly love system’s theory.

    (may i suggest a powerpoint to slideshare – if you already done it my apologies)

    I believe that twitter is missing outcome management. People follow other people when their paths cross, which is not necessarily the smartest of things. Bios can be a hint, yet nothing replaces true outcome management.

    We could do an analysis on how this strange behavior (follow people that are obviously lost) increases the system’s entropy to the point of rupture but than we could be tempted to apply it to other organizations, only to find that this same problem is occurs in other oganizations… same of them to taboo to mention… yet…lol.

    We need to revert to a low-energy web, based on knowledge and outcomes.

    (working on it… and so are you guys!… and that’s why I follow you guys… Thanks)

    P.S. – I also hate long replies. Sorry…. :-)

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